Fresh off leading Michigan to March Madness success Yaxel has picked up plenty of praise for his college career and many top 10 placements on big board. Why should you bet on a 24 year old rookie in the lottery? PRO: First things first, Yaxel is a super impact player. 99th percentile offensive and defensive RAPM, 99th percentile BPM, 97th OBPM 99th DBPM. All impact stats say he was one of the top basketball players last year and there’s really no variance in it. To me he’s right behind Cam Boozer for player of the year. Yaxel dominated and improved every season he’s played he’s increased in large chunks in BPM every season even did it after moving from UAB a mid major to a Big 10 school in Michigan. He’s shown development and improvement every year answering questions on translation of shooting, ability to put the ball on the floor at the next level. Yaxel has had a very late development clock and it’s a key sell for why he should be considered as a prospect and not somebody who’s a set product of the past year. Yaxels had an impressive scoring year, super efficient. 94th percentile TS% on 15 PPG a fairly average number. His 64% from inside the arc ranks in the 95th percentile meanwhile he has maintained a 37% 3pt% ranking in the 62nd percentile. His free throws have been awesome too, 71st percentile FTR with 82% from the line ranking in the 82nd percentile. Yaxel produces consistent offence at the line. Yaxels a plus positional playmaker,18% ast% in the 84th percentile, previous season an AST% of 23% ranking in the 97th percentile when he had higher usage. His very low turnover numbers mean Yaxel has ranked in the 99th percentile for ast/to with a major jump this year to 3.1. Crazy number positionally. We are talking about a very impressive plus playmaker positionally. Yaxel completes his very rounded skillset on defence, 81st percentile BLK%, 64th percentile STL%. Lendeborgs a blend of athleticism size and length advantages on the defensive end that’s very hard to compete with. He was surrounded by super talent on the defensive end which definitely helped him but he’s pretty undeniably a strong defender so far in his career. CON: Gonna ignore age and attack that later. One of the more questionable stats within Yaxel's stat profiles his USG% which is at around 20% ranking in the.28th percentile. While credited with being the main man for Michigan, it's vital to note he plays with an ELITE class of players. Yaxel's teammates Morez Johnson Jr and Aday Mara are two players I am also high on in this class he does have a lot of help on the offensive end. This lower Usage should make you question how much of a role Yale can truly have within a teams offence. When he's been at his best offensively he's playing within the system and sharing responsibility. I think Yaxel does a good job contributing when he isn't in a role where he's tasked with carrying the biggest load on offence he's a STAR contributor to success not leader. The only other true concern within Yaxel's season to me has been the rebounding numbers, decent offensive rebounder but 34th percentile DRB% is a concerning number. Very much important to be a good defensive rebounder when you have the athletic ability, size, length to maximise your contribution on that end there's really no reason for Yaxel to not be a 90+ percentile contributor on this end. But then you look at the context that he's next to another 6'9 great rebounder in Johnson Jr and a 7'3 relatively weaker rebounder but still longer then anybody else on the court Aday Mara and you realise these numbers can be more subjective than objective. There's only so many rebounds to go around and one of the reasons Michigan won the tournament was the rebounding impact of guys like Morez Johnson Jr. While Michigan wasn't dominant as rebounders on the season they were superior when it mattered. NARRATIVE:AGE: Issue: Lendeborg is going to turn 24 right before the start of his rookie NBA season, why would a team in the lottery take someone that old this early in the draft. Is there truly that much upside to his game? The reason is that Yaxel is already an NBA contributor thats easy to see. Look at the profile he can do enough of everything across the court that you don't really need much improvements from him to be a contributor he's ready for a rotation day 1. I talked about his development clock and how he's vastly improved every year of his college career. Im not going to struggle to rank someone who can contribute day 1 in the NBA as a lottery pick and some teams in the lottery this year will have to compete next year and tanked due to injuries or had other teams picks and will miss out on a big time reward on lottery night and Yaxel is gonna be a positive day 1 for them. You don't have an infinite window to succeed you gotta win while people are on rookie deals, cheap contracts and can maximise depth and bringing in a rookie like Yaxel is attacking that hypothesis directly. PROJECTION: Aaron Gordon was my ceiling comparison for Yaxel Lendeborg last year when I had him top 20 on my board. Now I’m even more confident in his play I think this is closer to my projected outcome then ceiling. It feels like the perfect idealised version of Lendeborg's current skillset of efficient 3pt shooter with improving volume. Super versatile NBA contributor who's been very important to Denver's success and into the postseason. Don't think there's too much variation from this outcome.