// SCOUT_HOMEPAGE
RAFS1MMONS
ballin like monta ellis
PROFILES
08
BOARD_SPOTS
14
YEAR
2026
// SAVED_BOARD
2026_OVERALL_BOARD
TOP_14
// PROSPECT_GUIDE
RYAN CONWELL
RYAN CONWELL
Ryan Conwell is a prototypical floor spacing guard whose value is rooted in elite catch and shoot gravity and highly scheme friendly shot selection. He consistently generates efficient looks by leaning into threes and rim attempts while avoiding low value mid range shots, which allows him to fit cleanly into modern NBA offences.
High volume three point specialist who carved out a real role, Max Strus represents a strong ceiling outcome that depends on consistent shooting and passable defence. Conwell shows similar shot selection and off ball gravity, but Strus brings more physicality, defensive competitiveness, and proven shot making at high levels. Given Conwell’s defensive limitations and recent efficiency dip, it’s more realistic that he falls short of that level unless his shooting and overall impact take a significant step forward.
Reliable floor spacer with limited creation and defensive value, a role Conwell could reasonably slide into if his shot translates. However, Bryn Forbes has proven elite shooting efficiency at the NBA level, which is a high bar, and Conwell’s recent regression plus weaker overall efficiency suggest he’s slightly less likely to reach that level of consistency, making a slightly lower outcome more realistic.
Conwell profiles similarly to Zach Norvell Jr. as a shooting focused guard who relies on spacing, shot selection, and off ball play rather than creation. However, Conwell’s elite shot diet, stronger frame, and rebounding give him a slightly higher floor as a role player. If his three point shooting stabilises closer to his free throw indicators, he has a better chance to stick as a rotation spacer, whereas Norvell has struggled to maintain efficiency and consistency at the NBA level.
// EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY
I've been looking for shooters in this draft who can space the floor at an elite level without needing plays called for them, and Ryan Conwell's name kept popping up. The 22 year old Louisville senior sits in the 99th percentile for three point volume 17.4 attempts per 100 possessions and Morey Rate 0.91, meaning nearly all his two point looks come at the rim while he lives beyond the arc. That kind of shot diet is exactly what modern NBA offences crave. The question is whether the rest of his game can catch up to that spacing profile.
Percentiles are positional, measured against NBA players' last season in college.
// OFFENSIVE_EVALUATION
Conwell’s offensive profile is defined by strong shot selection and clear role fit, but also some limitations. His 0.91 Morey Rate stands out as elite, as he takes 17.4 threes per 100 possessions in the 99th percentile while almost completely avoiding mid range attempts, which makes him very scheme friendly. He also provides catch and shoot gravity, with about 70% of his threes being assisted, and although he shot 34.5%, a dip from previous seasons, that mark is still workable given his volume and shot difficulty. His 83% career free throw shooting is another positive indicator, suggesting his three point shooting could stabilise closer to league average in a smaller NBA role. However, there are concerns, particularly with his efficiency regression, as his true shooting percentage dropped nearly eight points from his sophomore to senior year and his relative true shooting is now only slightly above average, even accounting for factors like Louisville’s offence and his higher usage. He also offers limited creation, with a 16th percentile assist rate and a 1.2 assist to turnover ratio, meaning he is not suited to initiating offence, and his 15th percentile rim assists show he rarely collapses defences or creates for others. As a finisher, he is adequate but not a major threat, shooting 59% at the rim on 6.5 attempts per 100 possessions, with only 35% of those makes unassisted, and a free throw rate in the 31st percentile indicating he does not draw many fouls on drives. Overall, his play type breakdown reinforces this role, with about 35% of his offence coming from perimeter shooting at 1.02 points per possession, 28% from rim attacks and cuts ranging from 1.01 to 1.31 points per possession, and 19% in transition at 1.10 points per possession, while his attack and kick playmaking is efficient at 1.08 points per possession but used sparingly, and he rarely operates in the pick and roll as a passer, making him more of a finisher and floor spacer than a true creator.
// DEFENSIVE_EVALUATION
Defence is the swing factor for Conwell’s NBA future, and the numbers are not encouraging. He struggles with foul trouble, averaging 3.6 fouls per 40 minutes in the 7th percentile alongside a 0.5 STK to foul ratio in the 9th percentile, which suggests difficulty staying on the floor in physical matchups. His lack of defensive playmaking is also evident, ranking in the 24th percentile in steal rate and 34th percentile in block rate, meaning he doesn’t disrupt passing lanes or contest shots at a meaningful level. In terms of size, at 6′3″ with a 6′8″ wingspan, he has decent length but remains undersized against bigger shooting guards; although his 215 pound frame in the 94th percentile helps absorb contact, his defensive RAPM in the 37th percentile indicates that strength hasn’t translated into impact. One bright spot is his rebounding, as his 14.4% defensive rebounding rate in the 86th percentile shows he can box out and contribute on the glass from the perimeter. Overall, Conwell projects as a minus defender at the NBA level, lacking the lateral quickness to stay in front of guards and the length to consistently bother wings, with his best case outcome being simply not a liability if he reduces fouling and better leverages his physicality.
// PROJECTION
Conwell's path to the NBA is narrow but clear: he needs to be a knockdown shooter. His shot profile is already optimised for modern offences, and his size and frame give him a puncher's chance of sticking on a roster. If he can shoot 37-38% from three on catch and shoot looks, he's a useful 10th or 11th man who spaces the floor and doesn't hurt you on the glass. The risks are real. He's old for a prospect, his efficiency trended the wrong way in his final college season, and he offers almost nothing as a playmaker or defender. He's not someone you can hide in a playoff rotation, and his creation limitations mean he'll never be more than a role player. Late second round 45-58.
// EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY
I've been looking for shooters in this draft who can space the floor at an elite level without needing plays called for them, and Ryan Conwell's name kept popping up. The 22 year old Louisville senior sits in the 99th percentile for three point volume 17.4 attempts per 100 possessions and Morey Rate 0.91, meaning nearly all his two point looks come at the rim while he lives beyond the arc. That kind of shot diet is exactly what modern NBA offences crave. The question is whether the rest of his game can catch up to that spacing profile.
// OFFENSIVE_EVALUATION
Conwell’s offensive profile is defined by strong shot selection and clear role fit, but also some limitations. His 0.91 Morey Rate stands out as elite, as he takes 17.4 threes per 100 possessions in the 99th percentile while almost completely avoiding mid range attempts, which makes him very scheme friendly. He also provides catch and shoot gravity, with about 70% of his threes being assisted, and although he shot 34.5%, a dip from previous seasons, that mark is still workable given his volume and shot difficulty. His 83% career free throw shooting is another positive indicator, suggesting his three point shooting could stabilise closer to league average in a smaller NBA role. However, there are concerns, particularly with his efficiency regression, as his true shooting percentage dropped nearly eight points from his sophomore to senior year and his relative true shooting is now only slightly above average, even accounting for factors like Louisville’s offence and his higher usage. He also offers limited creation, with a 16th percentile assist rate and a 1.2 assist to turnover ratio, meaning he is not suited to initiating offence, and his 15th percentile rim assists show he rarely collapses defences or creates for others. As a finisher, he is adequate but not a major threat, shooting 59% at the rim on 6.5 attempts per 100 possessions, with only 35% of those makes unassisted, and a free throw rate in the 31st percentile indicating he does not draw many fouls on drives. Overall, his play type breakdown reinforces this role, with about 35% of his offence coming from perimeter shooting at 1.02 points per possession, 28% from rim attacks and cuts ranging from 1.01 to 1.31 points per possession, and 19% in transition at 1.10 points per possession, while his attack and kick playmaking is efficient at 1.08 points per possession but used sparingly, and he rarely operates in the pick and roll as a passer, making him more of a finisher and floor spacer than a true creator.
// DEFENSIVE_EVALUATION
Defence is the swing factor for Conwell’s NBA future, and the numbers are not encouraging. He struggles with foul trouble, averaging 3.6 fouls per 40 minutes in the 7th percentile alongside a 0.5 STK to foul ratio in the 9th percentile, which suggests difficulty staying on the floor in physical matchups. His lack of defensive playmaking is also evident, ranking in the 24th percentile in steal rate and 34th percentile in block rate, meaning he doesn’t disrupt passing lanes or contest shots at a meaningful level. In terms of size, at 6′3″ with a 6′8″ wingspan, he has decent length but remains undersized against bigger shooting guards; although his 215 pound frame in the 94th percentile helps absorb contact, his defensive RAPM in the 37th percentile indicates that strength hasn’t translated into impact. One bright spot is his rebounding, as his 14.4% defensive rebounding rate in the 86th percentile shows he can box out and contribute on the glass from the perimeter. Overall, Conwell projects as a minus defender at the NBA level, lacking the lateral quickness to stay in front of guards and the length to consistently bother wings, with his best case outcome being simply not a liability if he reduces fouling and better leverages his physicality.
// PROJECTION
Conwell's path to the NBA is narrow but clear: he needs to be a knockdown shooter. His shot profile is already optimised for modern offences, and his size and frame give him a puncher's chance of sticking on a roster. If he can shoot 37-38% from three on catch and shoot looks, he's a useful 10th or 11th man who spaces the floor and doesn't hurt you on the glass. The risks are real. He's old for a prospect, his efficiency trended the wrong way in his final college season, and he offers almost nothing as a playmaker or defender. He's not someone you can hide in a playoff rotation, and his creation limitations mean he'll never be more than a role player. Late second round 45-58.
Percentiles are positional, measured against NBA players' last season in college.